NFL Prop Betting Glossary
The words you'll run into when researching NFL player props, explained in plain English. They're grouped by topic, and when we cover a term in more depth somewhere else, the entry links to it. The last section covers the labels you'll see on Prop Lab itself.
By Prop Lab
Bet Types
- Player prop
- A player prop is a bet on one player’s stats in a single game, like a receiver’s yards or a quarterback’s completions. It doesn’t matter who wins the game.NFL player props explained →
- Over / Under
- Over and under are the two sides of every prop. If Justin Herbert’s line is 249.5 passing yards, the over wins at 250 or more and the under wins at 249 or fewer.
- Push
- A push is a tie. The player lands exactly on the line, so the bet is refunded. It can only happen on whole-number lines. If Bryce Young’s completions line is 21 and he completes exactly 21, it’s a push. That’s why most lines end in .5.
- Hook
- The hook is the half point on a line like 54.5. It means the bet can’t push, since nobody finishes with half a yard.
- Alternate lines (alt lines)
- Alternate lines are extra versions of a prop at different numbers, each with its own price. If C.J. Stroud’s main line is 239.5 passing yards at -110, a book might also offer over 274.5 at plus money or over 204.5 at a steeper minus price.
- Parlay
- A parlay combines two or more bets into one ticket, like Lamar Jackson’s passing yards and Ashton Jeanty’s rushing yards. Every leg has to win, and the payout grows with each leg you add. At most books, a leg that pushes or gets voided drops out and the payout shrinks to match.
- Same-game parlay (SGP)
- A same-game parlay is a parlay where every leg comes from one game, like Tyler Shough’s passing yards and Chris Olave’s receiving yards. Books know those results are connected, so they usually pay less than you’d get by multiplying the legs’ odds together.
- Correlation
- Correlation is when two results tend to move together. Dak Prescott’s passing yards and CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards usually rise and fall together. A team’s runs and passes often move in opposite directions, since a team that’s ahead runs more and a team that’s behind throws more.
- Live betting (in-game betting)
- Live betting is betting after kickoff, with lines that update as the game plays out. If Bo Nix has 150 passing yards at halftime, his live line already counts them.
- Bad beat
- A bad beat is a bet that looked won and lost late, like an under on Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards that gets blown by one long run in the final minute.
Odds and Pricing
- American odds
- American odds are the prices next to each side. A minus number is what you bet to win $100, so -110 means you risk $110 to win $100. A plus number is what a $100 bet wins, so +120 pays $120.
- Even money
- Even money is a price of +100. You risk $100 to win $100, and the implied probability is exactly 50%.
- Implied probability
- Implied probability is the win chance built into a price. At -110 it’s 110 ÷ 210, about 52.4%, which is also how often you’d have to win at that price just to break even. At +120 it’s 100 ÷ 220, about 45.5%.Read the full guide →
- Vig (juice, vigorish)
- The vig is the sportsbook’s cut, and it’s built into the prices instead of charged separately. Fair prices on both sides would add up to 100%. At -110 on both sides they add up to about 104.8%, and the extra 4.8 points is the vig.Read the full guide →
- Hold
- Hold is the share of all the money bet that a sportsbook expects to keep if both sides get equal action. A prop priced at -110 on both sides has a hold of about 4.5%.
- No-vig price (fair odds)
- A no-vig price is what a side’s odds would be with the sportsbook’s cut taken out. You get it by scaling both sides’ implied probabilities so they add up to 100%. At -130 and +110, that works out to about 54% for the -130 side and 46% for the other.
- Expected value (EV, +EV)
- Expected value is what a bet would win or lose on average if you made it over and over. If a -110 bet really wins 55% of the time, each $110 bet averages about $5.50 in profit, which is positive EV. Nobody knows the true win rate for sure, so an EV number is only as good as the estimate behind it.
- Edge
- Edge is the gap between what you think a bet’s real chance is and what its price implies. If you think an over hits 56% of the time and the price implies 52.4%, you think you’ve got about a 3.6-point edge. Like expected value, it depends on how good your estimate is.
- Variance
- Variance is how much results swing around what you’d expect. Even a bet that wins 55% of the time can lose several in a row. Yardage props carry more variance than counts like receptions, because one long play can decide them.
- Line shopping
- Line shopping is checking the same prop at several sportsbooks before you bet. One book might have Christian McCaffrey at 64.5 rushing yards while another has him at 62.5. If you like the over, 62.5 is the better number.
Lines and Movement
- Opening line
- The opening line is the first number a sportsbook posts for a prop. It’s the baseline for measuring how far the line has moved since. On Prop Lab, it’s the first number we recorded, which can come a little after the book’s very first post.Read the full guide →
- Current line
- The current line is the number posted right now, and it can keep moving until kickoff. Compare it with the opening line to see how expectations have shifted during the week.NFL player props explained →
- Closing line
- The closing line is the last number before kickoff, after every injury report and bet has been taken into account. It’s the market’s best-informed guess at that prop.Read the full guide →
- Closing line value (CLV)
- Closing line value is the gap between the number you bet and the number that closed. If you took Kenneth Walker III over 74.5 rushing yards and it closed at 77.5, you got 3 yards of CLV. It measures the price you got, not whether the bet won.Read the full guide →
- Consensus line
- The consensus line is the number most sportsbooks are posting at the same time. If four books have Amon-Ra St. Brown at 76.5 receiving yards and one has him at 74.5, 76.5 is the consensus and 74.5 is the outlier.
- Soft line
- A soft line is a number that’s out of step with the rest of the market, like one book at 52.5 when everyone else is at 55.5. It usually doesn’t last long once the book notices.
- Line movement
- Line movement is any change to a prop’s number, its price, or both. A move means the book’s expectation changed. It doesn’t tell you what’s going to happen in the game.Read the full guide →
- Steam move (steam)
- A steam move is a fast line move at several sportsbooks at once, usually because a wave of respected money hit the same side. Books watch each other, so one move can spread across the market in minutes.
- Reverse line movement
- Reverse line movement is when a line moves against the side most bettors are on. If most tickets are on the over and the line drops anyway, something besides ticket count is moving it, like bigger bets, the book’s exposure, or new information.Read the full guide →
- Square
- A square is a casual bettor, the opposite of a sharp. Books expect square money and don’t treat it as a sign their number is wrong.
- Handle
- Handle is the total amount of money bet on a market. A prop with a big handle has a lot more money behind its price than one only a few people bet.
- Public betting
- Public betting is the action from casual bettors. Some books publish the share of bets and the share of money on each side. When those split, say 70% of the bets but only 40% of the money on the over, the bigger bets are on the under.
- Fade
- To fade is to bet against someone. Fading the public means taking the side most tickets aren’t on.
- Betting limits (limits)
- Limits are the most a sportsbook will let you bet on a market. Props usually carry lower limits than game spreads, especially early in the week, which is why a few bets can move a prop line before much else is known.
- Off the board (OTB)
- Off the board means a sportsbook has pulled a prop, so you can’t bet it. Books usually do this when a player’s status is up in the air, and put it back once there’s news.
Markets
- Passing yards
- Passing yards props cover a quarterback’s total yards on completed passes, including what his receivers gain after the catch. Yards lost on sacks don’t come off his passing total.See passing yards props →
- Passing touchdowns (passing TDs)
- Passing touchdown props cover how many touchdown passes a quarterback throws. A touchdown he runs in himself doesn’t count. Lines usually sit at 0.5, 1.5, or 2.5, so the price on each side does most of the work.See passing TD props →
- Passing attempts
- Passing attempts props cover how many passes a quarterback throws, complete or not. Throwaways, interceptions, and spikes all count. Sacks don’t.See passing attempts props →
- Completions
- A completions prop counts every pass a quarterback’s own team catches. A quarterback who throws short and often can clear it on a day his yardage comes up short.See completions props →
- Interceptions
- An interceptions prop is a bet on whether a quarterback throws one to the other team. The line is almost always 0.5, so the odds on each side do the pricing.See interceptions props →
- Rushing yards
- Rushing yards props cover a player’s total yards on runs. Quarterback scrambles count as runs, and so do kneel-downs, which usually lose a yard.See rushing yards props →
- Rushing attempts (carries)
- A rushing attempts prop counts how many times a player runs the ball. Carries follow role and game script more than talent. A back on a team that’s protecting a lead tends to pick up extra ones late.See rushing attempts props →
- Receiving yards
- Receiving yards props cover a player’s total yards on catches, including yards after the catch. One long catch can decide them, which makes them swingier than receptions.See receiving yards props →
- Receptions
- A receptions prop is a bet on how many passes a player catches. A 2-yard catch counts the same as a 40-yarder, so it follows targets and catch rate more than big plays.See receptions props →
- Combo prop
- A combo prop adds two stats together into one line, like a quarterback’s passing and rushing yards. Both parts count, so a slow day in one can be made up in the other.
- Pass + rush yards
- Pass + rush yards props add a quarterback’s passing and rushing yards into one number. They matter most for quarterbacks who run a lot, since every scramble adds to the total.See pass + rush yards props →
- Rush + rec yards
- Rush + rec yards props add a player’s rushing and receiving yards into one number. They fit running backs who catch passes out of the backfield, since the line doesn’t care how he gets his yards.See rush + rec yards props →
Injuries and Availability
- Practice report (DNP, Limited, Full)
- The practice report is the injury list teams file during game week. It shows whether each injured player did not participate (DNP), was limited, or practiced fully. For a Sunday game, reports come out Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
- Questionable
- Questionable is a game-status designation that means it’s uncertain whether the player will play. Lots of questionable players still suit up, so how he practiced during the week tells you more than the tag itself.
- Doubtful
- Doubtful means the player is unlikely to play. Books sometimes take his props off the board until there’s an answer.
- Out
- Out means the player won’t play. His targets or carries have to go somewhere, so an Out designation often moves his teammates’ lines too.
- Game-time decision
- A game-time decision is a player whose status won’t be settled until close to kickoff. It’s the hardest case to price, and books sometimes pull his props until they know.
- Inactives
- Inactives are the players each team rules out of the game about 90 minutes before kickoff. It’s the last big availability update before lines close.
- Void bet
- A void bet is canceled and your stake comes back. At most sportsbooks, a player prop is voided if the player doesn’t play in the game. Each book’s house rules spell out exactly what counts as playing.Read the full guide →
Opportunity and Usage
- Opportunity
- Opportunity is the chances a player is likely to get: attempts, carries, targets, routes, and snaps. It’s the first of the four research questions and the floor everything else is built on.Read the full guide →
- Route participation
- Route participation is how often a player runs a route when his team drops back to pass. If the Bengals drop back 40 times and Ja’Marr Chase runs 38 routes, he’s at 95%. A player can be on the field a lot and still run few routes if he’s blocking, which caps his targets.Read the full guide →
- Target
- A target is any pass thrown to a specific player, caught or not. It’s the basic unit of receiving opportunity, and target share and targets per route run are both built on it.
- Targets per route run (TPRR, target rate)
- Targets per route run is how often a player gets thrown to when he runs a route. If Trey McBride draws 8 targets on 32 routes, that’s 0.25. It shows whether a player earns the ball when he’s out there, separate from how often he’s out there.Read the full guide →
- Dropbacks
- A dropback is any play where the quarterback sets up to pass, whether it ends in a throw, a sack, or a scramble. Dropbacks are a fuller count of passing chances than attempts, since attempts leave out sacks and scrambles.
- Depth chart
- The depth chart is a team’s order of players at each position, like who’s the RB1 and who’s the backup. Changes to it, from injuries, benchings, or a rookie taking over, are one of the main reasons a line moves during the week.
- Game script
- Game script is how a game is expected to play out, mostly whether a team is likely to lead and run or trail and throw. The spread and total are the best early read on it.Read the full guide →
- Game line (spread and total)
- The game line is the point spread and total for the game itself. Props don’t pay on the game line, but they tend to move with it. If the total drops from 48 to 43, books expect fewer plays, and passing and receiving lines usually drift down too.Read the full guide →
- Implied team total
- An implied team total is how many points the market expects one team to score, worked out from the spread and total. If the Rams are 3-point favorites in a game with a 47-point total, their implied total is (47 + 3) ÷ 2 = 25, and their opponent’s is 22. A higher team total usually means more scoring chances to go around.Read the full guide →
- Garbage time
- Garbage time is the late part of a lopsided game, after the result’s been decided. The trailing team throws more against soft coverage, and the leading team may hand its carries to a backup. It can pad one player’s stats and cut another’s short.
- Pace
- Pace is how fast an offense runs plays. More plays means more chances for everyone, which raises the ceiling on volume props like attempts, carries, and receptions.
- Pass rate
- Pass rate is how often a team throws instead of runs. Put it together with pace and you’ve got a rough count of how many dropbacks a game will produce.
Efficiency Stats
- Efficiency
- Efficiency is what a player’s chances are usually worth, like yards per attempt, catch rate, or yards per target. It’s the second research question, and it’s where most of the week-to-week swing in yardage props comes from.Read the full guide →
- Catch rate
- Catch rate is the percentage of his targets a player catches. Short targets get caught more often than deep ones, so a receiver with a low aDOT usually has a higher catch rate.
- Average depth of target (aDOT)
- Average depth of target is how far downfield a player’s targets travel through the air, on average. A 6-yard aDOT points to an underneath role, and a 14-yard aDOT points to a downfield one.Read the full guide →
- Air yards
- Air yards are how far a pass travels past the line of scrimmage, counted whether it’s caught or not. They show how much downfield opportunity a player got, separate from what he did with it.
- Yards after catch (YAC)
- Yards after catch are the yards a player gains after he catches the ball. Along with target depth, they’re why receiving yards swing more than receptions do.Read the full guide →
- Yards per route run (YPRR)
- Yards per route run is a player’s receiving yards divided by the routes he ran. If Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 60 yards on 30 routes, that’s 2.0. It rolls earning targets and doing something with them into one number.
- Explosive play
- An explosive play is one big gain. Definitions vary, but a run of 10 or more yards or a catch of 20 or more is common. One or two of them can carry a yardage prop on a day the volume was ordinary.
Matchup and Reliability
- Matchup
- Matchup is how the opponent might change what a player usually does, and it’s the third research question. A defense can push teams to throw, shut down big plays, or funnel targets to one position. It adjusts the baseline, but it can’t create a role the player doesn’t have.Read the full guide →
- Pressure rate
- Pressure rate is how often a defense hurries, hits, or sacks the quarterback on his dropbacks. Pressure tends to push quarterbacks toward quicker, shorter throws, which can help completions while hurting yardage.
- Reliability
- Reliability is how much you should trust the first three research questions. Is the role stable, or did a trade, an injury, or a quarterback change split the sample in half? It rarely picks a side on its own. It tells you how sturdy the case is.Read the full guide →
Prop Lab Terms
- AI Analyst
- The AI Analyst is the part of Prop Lab that reads each prop’s data and writes up a pick. It gets the same inputs, in the same order, for every prop.How Prop Lab reads a prop →
- AI Pick
- AI Pick is the side our AI Analyst lands on, over or under. Every prop gets one, even a Pass, because there’s almost always a side we’d take if we had to.How Prop Lab reads a prop →
- AI Confidence
- AI Confidence is the tier for the AI Pick: Strong Take, Take, Lean, or Pass. It tells you how strong the case is for that side. It isn’t the chance the player clears his number.How Prop Lab reads a prop →
- Strong Take
- Strong Take is our highest confidence tier. Everything we look at points the same way. It’s still not a guarantee.
- Take
- Take is the next tier down. Most of the case lines up, and the write-up tells you what doesn’t.
- Lean
- Lean is the on-the-fence tier. Injury news or a line move during the week can push it either way.
- Pass
- Pass is for props that look too uncertain or volatile to act on. We still name a side, and the write-up tells you what’s missing or what worries us.
- Odds
- Odds are the typical price the sportsbooks have posted for each side, with O for Over and U for Under. Open them and you’ll see every book’s line and prices, so you can spot the best number.How Prop Lab reads a prop →
- Model Proj
- Model Proj is what our model projects for the stat.
- Proj Diff
- Proj Diff is how far the Model Proj sits from the line. A big gap is a reason to dig in. On its own, it isn’t a bet.How Prop Lab reads a prop →
Where to Go Next
To see these terms in action, start with the four research questions, which walk through opportunity, efficiency, matchup, and reliability in order. How sportsbooks set prop lines covers where the number comes from, and reading line movement covers what happens to it during the week. To see opportunity and efficiency on real markets, try passing yards vs. completions and receptions vs. receiving yards.
Sources
The pricing terms come from the sportsbooks themselves. The usage, efficiency, and injury terms come from the league and from public football data.
- DraftKings Sportsbook, How to Read Odds is a sportsbook's own explanation of odds and the margin built into both sides. It backs the odds, vig, and implied probability entries.
- Pinnacle, What Is Closing Line Value? defines closing line value and why the closing number is treated as the market's best-informed estimate.
- NFL injury report is the league's weekly report, with the practice participation and game-status designations behind the injury entries.
- NFL Next Gen Stats is the league's player-tracking program. It publishes tracked measures like air yards and yards after catch.
- nflfastR publishes open play-by-play data as part of the community nflverse project, which also shares weekly snap counts. Most of the usage and efficiency measures here can be worked out from that data.
- NFL official statistics are the league's player stats, which is where the market entries' counting stats come from.
Prop Lab isn't a sportsbook and has no affiliate or commercial relationship with the operators linked above.
Glossary FAQ
Snap share counts every offensive play a player is on the field for. Route participation only counts pass plays, and only the ones where he runs a route. A tight end who blocks a lot can play most of the snaps and still run routes on half the dropbacks, so route participation is the better read for receiving props.
They describe the same cut two ways. Vig is how far the two sides’ implied probabilities add up past 100%, about 4.8 points at -110 on both sides. Hold is the share of all the money bet that the book expects to keep, about 4.5% on that same prop. Either way, it’s why winning exactly half your bets at -110 loses money.
At most sportsbooks it’s voided and your stake comes back. If it was a leg in a parlay, that leg usually drops out and the payout shrinks. Each book’s house rules spell out what counts as playing, so it’s worth checking them when a player is questionable.
It means you risk $110 to win $100. The implied probability is about 52.4%, which is also how often you’d have to win at that price to break even.
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