NFL Rushing Yards Props

The Under at 19.5 rushing yards depends on a changed backfield allocation: Dameon Pierce handled a 76.71% carry share while Saquon Barkley missed the Eagles’ last two games, but Barkley is now active after practicing fully Saturday. Barkley averaged 16.0 touches in his two healthy outings, and Elijah Mitchell is also on hand for running back reps. Pierce’s 11.5 carries per game and 24.5 rushing yards per game over those two contests describe the Barkley-free role, not the expected split now. He had 14 yards on 11 carries in Week 5 and 35 on 12 in Week 6; that recent production is a real counter, but his season average of 2.1 yards per carry makes it harder to clear the line if his carries fall.

Dallas has allowed 149.8 rushing yards per game across six games, 32nd in the NFL, a meaningful opposing case. But the recent results vary sharply: Bucky Irving gained 165 yards on 21 carries, including a 72-yard longest run, while David Montgomery had 24 on 10 carries and the Packers’ Pierre Strong and MarShawn Lloyd had 28 on 11 and 10 on 8. Over Dallas’s last three games, its allowed rushing success rate was 38.78%, 11th in the NFL, and its allowed explosive rushing rate was 7.5%, sixth; those rates suggest its recent resistance has been better than the season yardage total implies. Philadelphia’s own rushing success rate was 31.02%, 32nd, and its explosive rushing rate was 3.44%, 32nd, over that span. The Eagles are 4.5-point underdogs with a 19.5 implied team total, so a trailing script could also cut into Pierce’s rushing workload. Dallas’s season-long weakness and Pierce’s recent 35-yard game keep the Over live, but the confirmed return of Barkley makes the old carry share a poor basis for projecting Pierce’s role.